# NFL Picks Build Status Last updated: 2026-06-27 ## Antigravity Handoff Use `docs/ANTIGRAVITY_HANDOFF.md` when continuing this work in Antigravity. It identifies the correct local repo (`C:\Users\eball\Documents\Codex\nfl-picks`), summarizes the current Codex-built state, calls out the nested-repo caveat before publishing to `sacboyz/nfl-picks`, and lists the validation commands and live-data guardrails Antigravity should preserve. ## Completed - Planning document: `docs/NFL_FRAMEWORK_PLAN.md` - Build backlog: `docs/NFL_BUILD_BACKLOG.md` - Python project skeleton and package setup. - Config constants for V1 markets, deferred markets, baby-line thresholds, edge thresholds, states, confidence tiers, and market lifecycle. - Core contracts: `SlateContext`, `MarketBlend`, `ModelProjection`, `EngineSignal`, `EngineCandidate`, `CandidateBet`. - Odds helpers: American odds implied probability, projected side, diff percentage, book lean, books agree. - Foundational gates: - data completeness - inactive state - publish-time line movement - confidence tier - team-market Lean / Review / No Play restriction - Static mock slate fixture covering A, Lean, Review, Abstain, stale projection, pre-inactives, and moved-line cases. - Static runner that evaluates mock player props and team markets. - HTML report prototype with team context, player props, Review/Fade/Abstain sections, best-line display, risk flags, and correlation warnings. - Tracker CSV and audit JSON artifacts. - Role / Injury / Opportunity classifier. - Defensive matchup color and injury-delta helpers. - Correlation group and contradiction hard-gate helpers. - Six visible check skeleton: - Baby Line - Projection Edge - Books Agree - Defensive Matchup - Role / Injury / Opportunity - Game Script - BetScore calculation from visible checks, hidden gates, market confirmation, publish-time edge, and confidence. - Best-line selection for Over/Under offers. - Game-window line freshness gate. - Report check notes and hidden-gate details. - Conservative baseline projection helper and runner fallback for records without a provided projection. - Mock fixtures for contradictory same-game cards and defensive injury matchup boosts. - Defensive injury boost signals now survive offensive injury/review gates so both sides of the injury context are visible. - Data-source contract map for schedule, odds, usage, injuries, team context, matchup, and weather feeds. - Report filter controls for state, market, confidence, team, book agreement, and injury concern. - Weekly game-window summary rollups for NFL cadence. - Export validation for required candidate/context fields in audit artifacts. - GitHub Actions CI for tests and mock report artifact generation. - Cloudflare Pages-ready docs index. - Team-market V1 lean explanations and anti-circular team-total gate. - Report-side sorting for edge, BetScore, confidence, and game window. - Provider adapter boundaries for fixture, nflreadpy usage, odds, weather, and injury/inactives feeds. - Derived implied team-total context from spread and game total. - Mock runner CLI arguments for fixture mode, output directory, and report date placeholder. - Settlement helpers for win/loss/push/no-action and correlated backtest weighting. - Provider payload normalizers for odds, weather, injuries/inactives, and usage records. - Season/week/generated/publish metadata in SlateContext, audit JSON, and report header. - Source-health report/audit rollups for feed completeness and missing fields. - Settlement import path from result rows to tracker-compatible settled rows. - Backtest summaries with raw and correlation-weighted win rates. - Optional nflverse/nflreadpy baseline loader boundary behind fixture mode. - Sanitized nflverse-style local sample-mode baseline loader for offline projection-boundary testing. - `run_mock.py --mode sample` now renders sanitized sample-baseline artifacts under `docs/mock/sample_baseline/`. - Full fixture builds now include sample-baseline report, results, tracker, audit, summary, and rankings artifacts. - Cold-start projection metadata now caps early-season unstable baselines at Medium confidence. - Sample baseline loader tests cover local payload loading, missing sample fail-closed behavior, cold-start Review, and missing-projection Abstain. - Settlement CLI and sample fixture result/settled tracker artifacts. - CI now exercises tests, mock report generation, and settled tracker generation. - Source-health freshness timestamps and freshness status fields. - Weather fixture data and weather hidden gate for wind-sensitive markets. - Anytime TD high-variance module, fixture, report treatment, and settlement sample. - Historical backtest result fixture sets and coverage summary loader. - Historical coverage in SlateContext, audit JSON, and report output. - Injury timeline fixtures, loader, stale-projection helper, context/audit/report summary. - Matchup recent-window sample floor, blowout distortion, and off-bye hidden gate. - Backtest summary CLI/artifact with overall and market-level raw/weighted rates. - CI now generates mock report, settled tracker, and backtest summary artifacts. - Source-specific freshness thresholds with Fresh/Stale/Unknown/Missing statuses. - Product copy guardrails for education-first language. - Multi-book Over/Under odds normalizer tied to best-line selection. - Artifact validators and validation CLI for report, audit, tracker, settled tracker, and backtest summary. - Cloudflare Pages-ready docs headers and pages-readiness workflow. - Market-health CLI/artifact with market, confidence, and state rollups from settled tracker output. - End-to-end local fixture build wrapper with artifact validation. - Configurable sportsbook priority as final best-line tie-breaker. - Official inactive-report normalizer for active/inactive player lists. - MarketBlend coverage-quality scoring from sportsbook depth and major-book count. - Config-driven market lifecycle promotion recommendations in market-health output. - Weekly schedule-window classification helpers for kickoff timestamps. - Market-health HTML report for lifecycle recommendation cards. - Daily-run helpers for upcoming games, named windows, and next window selection. - Main report summary band and jump navigation. - Run manifest artifact for full fixture builds. - Human-readable build summary Markdown artifact. - Optional live-provider environment config validation and documentation. - Artifact index JSON for generated docs/mock outputs. - Release notes Markdown generated from build status and run manifest. - Docs index link validation for generated static pages and artifacts. - Static docs site map JSON for publishing review. - Release bundle JSON for standalone repo handoff checks. - Source-health status/freshness badges in the main report. - Source-health gate summary now classifies source readiness as PASS, REVIEW, or ABSTAIN for audit handoff. - Source-health gate summary now surfaces in report summary JSON and the main static report. - Provider sample validation now rejects malformed timestamp-shaped fields before adapter review. - Provider sample validation and review-summary artifacts now roll up invalid JSON, unsupported shapes, non-object rows, missing required rows, and bad timestamp rows. - Review packet, collection packet, and next-action queue now surface provider sample diagnostics for offline fixes. - Main report print stylesheet for human review exports. - Compact report summary JSON for external status surfaces. - Dashboard-style summary cards on the docs landing page. - `.env.example` fixture/live placeholder config with no committed secrets. - Local development handoff docs for fixture mode and release safety. - One-command local quality gate for tests, fixture build, and artifact validation. - Provider decision register for approving future live data sources. - Git ignore protection for local `.env` files while preserving `.env.example`. - Build backlog refreshed with fixture-build status and production provider issues. - GitHub issue templates for build slices, provider decisions, and calibration reviews. - Pull request template for quality-gate evidence and product safety checks. - Security policy for secrets, live-provider enablement, and product safety. - Future injury/inactives provider env placeholder aligned to the inactive state machine. - Remote setup checklist for GitHub Actions and Cloudflare Pages publishing. - EditorConfig for consistent formatting across agents and local editors. - Docs landing page validation now includes product copy guardrails. - Release bundle validation now checks individual required path rows. - Provider schema fixture placeholder directory for approved future data sources. - Quality gate command labels flush before subprocess output. - Architecture map for core modules and runtime entrypoints. - Expanded report summary JSON with state, market, window, confidence, inactive, risk, and hidden-gate breakdowns. - Docs landing page dashboard panels for summary breakdowns. - Game-window staleness policy aligned with Sunday Night, Monday Night, International, and Holiday labels. - Structured game-script type derived from spread and total, surfaced in team context. - Candidate-level structured game-script alignment for passing and rushing volume markets. - Audit export validation now requires favorite, underdog, and structured script fields. - Candidate rankings JSON artifact for compact sorted UI/API feeds. - Quality gate now builds fixture artifacts before tests that validate generated docs. - Candidate rankings include a compact primary reason for UI explanation. - Docs landing page surfaces top candidates from candidate rankings JSON. - Product copy guardrails expanded for betting-hype phrases while allowing policy language. - Full build wrapper now performs final artifact validation after all handoff artifacts are written. - Package `__version__` exported and tested against `pyproject.toml`. - Provider decision document validator for required live-source categories. - Adapter registry payload for fixture and future live-provider boundaries. - Adapter registry JSON artifact for static docs handoff. - Lightweight repo secret scan wired into the quality gate. - GitHub Actions workflows simplified to use the local quality gate. - Provider decision documentation CLI wired into the quality gate. - Contributing guide for quality-gate, provider, secret, and product-language rules. - Calibration review JSON artifact with small-sample warnings and threshold-review dimensions. - Calibration HTML report for readable threshold-review cards. - Data dictionary for tracker, audit, rankings, and calibration artifacts. - Six-check schema JSON artifact for report and UI consumers. - Threshold schema JSON artifact for baby-line and edge-threshold review. - Market scope JSON artifact for V1, team, and deferred market boundaries. - Run manifest artifact count and byte-size metadata. - Full build avoids stale optional-artifact validation before final artifact refresh. - Release readiness JSON combining bundle, provider, secret, and artifact validation status. - Release readiness HTML report for readable handoff status. - Repository inventory JSON for handoff review. - Build status JSON artifact for machine-readable handoff status. - Quality gate plan JSON artifact for CI and handoff command review. - Data source contracts JSON artifact for future live-provider adapter wiring. - Handoff summary JSON artifact for compact release-review status. - Backlog summary JSON artifact for machine-readable issue planning. - Final run-manifest refresh so late-stage handoff artifacts are included in generated artifact metadata. - Run manifest now includes original fixture outputs: mock slate results, tracker, audit, and sample results. - Run manifest validation now checks artifact paths, counts, and positive byte metadata. - Artifact index validation now checks count, file set, paths, and non-self artifact sizes. - GitHub issue seed JSON artifact generated from the build backlog for future remote issue creation. - GitHub label seed JSON artifact generated from the build backlog label taxonomy. - GitHub milestone seed JSON artifact generated from the build backlog milestone taxonomy. - GitHub backlog bundle JSON artifact combining labels, milestones, and issues for remote setup. - Handoff summary now includes remote-backlog import counts. - GitHub backlog report HTML artifact for readable remote-import review. - Season readiness JSON/HTML artifacts for offseason live-pick availability guardrails. - Handoff summary now includes season-readiness state. - Provider sample folders and README placeholders for schedule, odds, usage, injuries, team context, matchup, and weather feeds. - Provider fixture status JSON/HTML artifacts for schema-sample readiness before live adapters. - Handoff summary now includes provider-fixture readiness counts. - Live readiness JSON/HTML artifacts for season, provider, fixture, and environment blockers. - Handoff summary now includes live-readiness blockers. - Provider schema template JSON/HTML artifacts derived from data-source contracts without approving providers. - Provider sample request JSON/HTML artifacts turn schema templates into sanitized, credential-free sample requests for future provider review. - Provider sample intake JSON/HTML artifacts map provider approval and sample-folder readiness into offline collection actions. - Provider sample validation JSON/HTML artifacts inspect sanitized sample JSON files against required source-contract fields. - Provider sample redaction audit JSON/HTML artifacts inspect sanitized sample JSON files for forbidden keys and secret-shaped values. - Provider sample review summary JSON/HTML artifacts combine sample request, intake, validation, and redaction status into one handoff surface. - Provider sample collection packet Markdown artifact provides a copy-ready checklist for future sanitized sample collection. - Live adapter placeholders now cover schedule, team context, and matchup in addition to odds, usage, weather, and injuries. - Adapter readiness JSON/HTML artifacts summarize live-adapter and normalizer coverage gaps. - Live readiness now evaluates adapter and normalizer coverage before future live enablement. - Schedule, team context, and matchup normalizers added, completing normalizer coverage for all data-source families. - Fixture scenario coverage JSON/HTML artifacts verify no-live-data coverage across states, gates, and review paths. - Handoff summary now includes fixture scenario coverage counts for release review. - Docs landing page now surfaces fixture scenario coverage counts alongside candidate summary panels. - Provider selection rubric JSON/HTML artifacts document approval proof needed before future live-provider enablement. - Handoff summary now includes provider selection rubric counts for release review. - Next action queue JSON/HTML artifacts separate safe fixture-mode work from provider, live-data, and repo-setup dependencies. - Handoff summary now includes next action queue counts for release review. - Release bundle now requires the latest offline review scripts and critical generated handoff artifacts. - Release bundle JSON now includes path counts, missing counts, path-type rollups, and missing-path details. - Handoff summary now includes release bundle path and missing-path counts. - Release readiness JSON/HTML now surfaces release bundle path counts and missing-path details. - Review packet Markdown artifact now rolls up release readiness, live blockers, scenario coverage, provider review, and next actions. - Artifact summary JSON now rolls up generated artifact counts, bytes, file types, and largest outputs for release review. - Repo setup status JSON/HTML artifacts now inspect standalone Git and remote-publish readiness without mutating local Git state. - Handoff summary and review packet now surface repo setup status for remote handoff planning. - Docs publish readiness JSON/HTML artifacts now validate the Cloudflare Pages static docs payload without contacting GitHub or Cloudflare. - Handoff summary and review packet now surface docs publish readiness for release review. - `live_no_call` runtime mode now supports online-prep readiness while keeping provider API calls disabled. - Provider runtime guardrails now fail closed before future network-backed calls when mode or quota is not live-ready. - Provider runtime action guard now blocks live publishing and provider calls outside valid live mode while allowing offline QA. - Provider dry-run JSON/HTML artifacts now show per-source no-call status before any future live-provider network work. - Network guard audit JSON/HTML artifacts now scan Python source for direct network-call primitives and surface zero-call evidence in handoff review. - Runtime mode matrix JSON/HTML artifacts now document fixture, sample, live-no-call, live, and quota-exhausted behavior. - Live enablement checklist JSON/HTML artifacts now combine prep, release, provider, quota, and season gates before any future live-call enablement. - Handoff summary and review packet now surface provider sample request counts and approval blockers. - Handoff summary and review packet now surface provider sample intake readiness and pending sample counts. - Handoff summary and review packet now surface provider sample validation readiness, missing samples, and invalid samples. - Handoff summary and review packet now surface provider sample redaction audit validity and finding counts. - Handoff summary and review packet now surface the provider sample review summary and next review action. - Live enablement checklist now includes provider sample review readiness and sample validation/redaction gates. - Antigravity continuation handoff now documents the correct local repo, current Codex-built state, nested-repo caveat, validation commands, and live-data guardrails. - Release bundle now requires the Antigravity handoff so the continuation instructions travel with the standalone repo handoff. - Fixture scenario coverage now verifies 17/17 no-live-data scenarios, including B-grade candidates, publish-time line Abstain, isolated defensive injury boost, and opportunity-boost A-grade paths. - Test coverage now includes additional grading, visible-check, scoring, correlation, daily-window, and fixture-scenario edge cases. - GitHub backlog labels, milestones, and 23 generated issue seeds have been imported into `sacboyz/nfl-picks`. - Provider-neutral schema samples now exist for schedule, odds, usage, injuries, team context, matchup, and weather without approving live providers. - Provider sample fixture tests now validate sample completeness, redaction cleanliness, and normalizer compatibility. - Next-action queue now separates completed local sample/repo readiness from provider approval and live-mode blockers. - Provider sample consistency JSON/HTML artifacts now compare shared IDs and team/player coverage across sanitized provider sample families. - Fixture-vs-sample baseline comparison JSON/HTML artifacts now compare candidate, state, market, and source-health output across offline lanes. - Release bundle required paths now include the latest baseline comparison and provider sample consistency scripts and generated artifacts. - Docs landing page now links directly to baseline comparison and provider sample consistency artifacts. - Provider sample consistency checks now include explicit explanations and review classifications; the current weather sample review is documented as expected sample diversity, not a fixture gap. - Sanitized nflverse baseline source-health now normalizes game-level weather fields and recent matchup samples into the shared source-health contracts without weakening fail-closed gates. - Fixture scenario coverage now verifies 20/20 no-live-data scenarios, including post-inactives confirmed opportunity, clean next-man-up opportunity, and stale/outlier best-line review. - Settlement/backtest outputs now de-weight correlated groups by actual group size, with mixed correlated sample outcomes included in fixture results. - Release bundle mirroring now requires every generated `docs/mock/` artifact from the run manifest to appear in the release bundle. - Quality gate tests now assert default offline-safe behavior and `live_no_call` provider dry-run with all provider calls blocked. - Data dictionary now documents provider consistency explanations, sample-baseline source-health normalization, scenario coverage, release mirroring, and quality-gate no-live guardrails. - Repo setup status next actions are now conditional, so configured standalone repos stop showing stale initialize/add-remote guidance. - Baseline comparison now carries source-health detail for fixture and sample lanes, including stale/future source families. - Provider sample review summary and review packet now surface consistency classifications and expected sample diversity explanations. - Backtest summary now exposes correlation group count, correlated counted rows, and weighted de-weight delta for transparent market-health review. - Release bundle artifact validation now rejects duplicate path rows in addition to missing paths. - Run manifest now includes Git branch, commit, and dirty-worktree provenance for generated docs payloads. - Provider sample validation now reports sample records, normalized records, normalizer coverage, and per-file normalized throughput. - Calibration JSON/HTML now surfaces threshold review readiness and a hold/review threshold action. - Docs publish readiness now reports local link counts, missing link counts, artifact-index count, and site-map count. - Market-health JSON now includes explicit research-only lifecycle policy and trusted-inheritance guardrails. ## Current Verification ```powershell python -m pytest -q ``` Current result: ```text 658 passed ``` Full local quality gate: ```powershell python run_quality_gate.py ``` Runs: - tests - full fixture artifact build - artifact validation Mock artifact generation: ```powershell python run_mock.py ``` Writes: - `docs/mock/index.html` - `docs/mock/mock_slate_results.json` - `docs/mock/tracker.csv` - `docs/mock/audit.json` ## Recommended Next Issues 1. Add provider-specific live implementation once provider/API choices are approved. 2. Add provider-specific schema fixtures after vendors are approved. 3. Add additional UI polish after live-provider decisions. 4. Add Cloudflare Pages repository settings after the repo exists on GitHub.