Sacboyz NFL Calibration Review
Threshold review aid only. Do not auto-change thresholds from sparse NFL samples.
Threshold Action
hold thresholds: weighted counted sample 3.5 below review floor 15
- Small samples are expected in fixture mode and early NFL weeks.
- Use this artifact for review; do not auto-change thresholds from it.
- Correlated outcomes should remain de-weighted before promotion decisions.
book_agreement
- books_agreeweighted n=1.3333333333333333 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
- books_disagree_or_unknownweighted n=2.1666666666666665 | win rate=84.6% Small sample
confidence_tier
- Highweighted n=2.0 | win rate=83.3% Small sample
- Lowweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- Mediumweighted n=1.5 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
edge_bucket
- 10-15%weighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- 15-20%weighted n=1.5 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
- 20-25%weighted n=0.8333333333333333 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
- 25%+weighted n=0.6666666666666666 | win rate=50.0% Small sample
- <10%weighted n=0.5 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
game_script_tag
- BAL defense limits end-zone opportunities; high-varianceweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- Close game supports balanced volumeweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- Contradiction setupweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- Dome game; weather neutralweighted n=0.3333333333333333 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
- Efficient marketweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- KC favored; rushing script in second halfweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- Lean only; team bets not Top Pick eligibleweighted n=0.5 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
- Line moved; edge compressedweighted n=0.5 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
- Line steamed; market has moved past projectionweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- Low confidence projectionweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- No playweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- PHI trailing script supports check-down volumeweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- Target-share ceiling supported by game scriptweighted n=0.3333333333333333 | win rate=0.0% Small sample
- Target-share driven; game total supports volumeweighted n=0.3333333333333333 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
- Team total and goal-line role support TD equityweighted n=1.0 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
- Trailing script supports targetsweighted n=0.5 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
game_window
- Sunday Earlyweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- Sunday Lateweighted n=1.0 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
- Sunday Nightweighted n=1.0 | win rate=66.7% Small sample
- Thursdayweighted n=1.5 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
injury_opportunity_tag
- No boostweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- No concernweighted n=0.6666666666666666 | win rate=50.0% Small sample
- No major concernweighted n=1.5 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
- Opponent Injury Boostweighted n=0.3333333333333333 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
- Player inactiveweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- Projection updatedweighted n=0.5 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
- Starter ruled out; role confirmed in inactivesweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- unknownweighted n=0.5 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
market
- anytime_tdweighted n=1.0 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
- passing_completionsweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- passing_tdsweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- passing_yardsweighted n=0.5 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
- receiving_yardsweighted n=1.1666666666666665 | win rate=71.4% Small sample
- receptionsweighted n=0.3333333333333333 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
- rush_receiving_yardsweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- rushing_yardsweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- team_totalweighted n=0.5 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
matchup_color
- greenweighted n=2.3333333333333335 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
- orangeweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- redweighted n=0.6666666666666666 | win rate=50.0% Small sample
- unknownweighted n=0.5 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
state
- Aweighted n=1.1666666666666665 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
- Abstain / No Playweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- Bweighted n=0.3333333333333333 | win rate=0.0% Small sample
- Fadeweighted n=0 | win rate=- Small sample
- Leanweighted n=0.5 | win rate=100.0% Small sample
- Review-Onlyweighted n=1.5 | win rate=100.0% Small sample