Sacboyz NFL Picks Historical Replay

Season 2025 Week 10 | generated 2025-11-09T10:00:00-05:00 | publish 2025-11-09T10:00:00-05:00

Education-first static prototype. Singles-first. No lock language. No live data.

Historical Replay - Not Current Picks

2025 Week 10 Sunday main slate

Projection inputs as of Week 9

Results used for settlement only

Cached offline replay; Odds API credits used: 0

Actionable/Lean0

Review4

Fade0

No Play0

Pre-Inactives0

Source Issues1

Source GateREVIEW

Source Health

Reviewer Notes: Source Health Status

Inspect provider cadences and statuses below. A 'Degraded' or 'Stale' state indicates source health checks have failed; live selections will block if any critical source is not 'Complete' and 'Fresh'.

Source gate: REVIEW Fail closed: False Review required: True Missing/degraded: - Stale/future: odds Unknown fast-moving: -

Data feed source health, freshness, and update times
Source	Status	Freshness	Last Updated	Provider	Cadence	Missing Required
Game Metadata	Complete	Fresh	2025-11-09T10:00:00-05:00	nflverse/nflreadpy schedules	weekly slate plus game-window refresh	-
Market Lines	Complete	Stale	2025-11-09T09:05:00-05:00	odds API	pre-publish and publish-time refresh	-
Usage and Role	Complete	Fresh	2025-11-09T10:00:00-05:00	nflverse/nflreadpy participation where available	weekly after games, with depth-chart overrides before kickoff	-
Injuries and Inactives	Complete	Fresh	2025-11-09T09:00:00-05:00	official team reports and 90-minute inactive report	daily practice reports, final status, and per-window 90-minute inactives	-
Team Context	Complete	Fresh	2025-11-09T10:00:00-05:00	derived from market, nflverse/nflreadpy, and baseline model inputs	pre-slate and publish-time refresh	-
Defensive Matchup	Complete	Fresh	2025-11-09T10:00:00-05:00	nflverse/nflreadpy plus optional PFF/FTN enrichment	weekly season-long and recent-window refresh	-
Weather	Complete	Fresh	2025-11-09T09:15:00-05:00	weather API	daily, then same-day window refresh	-

Team Context

NFL games team context listing with spreads, totals, and scripts
Window	Game	Spread	Total	Listed Team Totals	Derived Team Totals	Favorite	Script Type	Script
Sunday Early	BUF at MIA	-3.5	48.5	26.0 / 22.5	22.5 / 26.0	MIA	Favorite lean script / High total	BUF favored; MIA trailing paths support passing volume.
Sunday Late	KC at LV	-6.5	45.5	26.0 / 19.5	19.5 / 26.0	LV	Favorite lean script / Neutral total	KC favored; LV pass volume increases if trailing.

Window Summary

Candidate counts and status categories summarized by game window
Window	Total	Actionable/Lean	Review	Fade	Abstain	Pre-Inactives	Correlation Groups
Sunday Early	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
Sunday Late	2	0	2	0	0	0	2

Historical Coverage

Result sets: 2 | Rows: 9 | Weeks: 2026-W01, 2026-W02

Historical database row counts by betting market category
Market	Rows
anytime_td	1
passing_yards	2
receiving_yards	2
rush_receiving_yards	1
rushing_yards	2
team_total	1

Injury Timeline

Events: 6 | Official confirmations: 3

Players tracked: Inactive WR, Next Man Up RB, Starting RB

Invalidated after inactives: Inactive WR, Starting RB

Filters

State Market Confidence Team Books Agree Injury Concern Sort 4 shown

Reviewer Notes: Hidden Gates

Verify top active hidden gates. Hidden gates execute systematic rules (injury boundaries, line-movement filters) silently to manage risk. Review the gate triggers below to verify they match expectations.

Actionable / Lean Candidates

No candidates met the threshold criteria in this offline evaluation. Systematic abstention is enforced to manage risk; no future outcome is implied.

Team Bets

KC team_total | Review-Only | confidence Medium

Checks: - ! OK - OK OK

Over 26.0 | projection 28.5 | edge at publish 0.09615384615384616

Best line: - - (-)

Role: Stable Role | Injury: - | Script: Lean only; team markets are not Top Pick eligible

Reasoning: V1 team-market review-only only; not Top Pick eligible. Projected side: OVER. Publish edge: 9.6%. Market confirmation: books lean OVER, which agrees. Game-script use: Lean only; team markets are not Top Pick eligible.

Correlation group: 2025_10_KC_LV_team_context

Check notes

Baby Line: N/A - not applicable
Projection Edge: WARN - edge 9.6% below 10.0%
Books Agree: PASS - books lean OVER
Defensive Matchup: N/A - matchup color unavailable
Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Stable Role
Game Script: PASS - Lean only; team markets are not Top Pick eligible

Hidden gates

data_completeness: PASS
inactive_state: PASS
publish_time_line: REVIEW
injury_staleness: PASS
inactive_availability: PASS
odds_staleness: REVIEW
weather_staleness: PASS
mapping_confidence: PASS
role_injury_opportunity: PASS
line_staleness: REVIEW
weather: PASS
matchup_sample: PASS
team_market_scope: PASS

Risk flags

publish-time edge 9.6% below 10.0% threshold
line age 55m exceeds 15m freshness window
line age 55m exceeds 15m freshness window

Player Props

Historical Replay WR receiving_yards | Review-Only | confidence Medium

Checks: OK OK OK OK OK OK

Over 54.5 | projection 68.57 | edge at publish 0.2581651376146788

Best line: DraftKings 54.5 (-110)

Role: Stable WR1 route share | Injury: No major concern | Script: Trailing script supports target volume

Reasoning: -

Correlation group: 2025_10_BUF_MIA_mia_pass

Check notes

Baby Line: PASS - line 54.5 clears 40 minimum
Projection Edge: PASS - edge 25.8% clears 20.0%
Books Agree: PASS - books lean OVER
Defensive Matchup: PASS - green matchup supports OVER
Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Stable WR1 route share | No major concern
Game Script: PASS - Trailing script supports target volume

Hidden gates

data_completeness: PASS
inactive_state: PASS
publish_time_line: PASS
injury_staleness: PASS
inactive_availability: PASS
odds_staleness: REVIEW
weather_staleness: PASS
mapping_confidence: PASS
role_injury_opportunity: PASS
line_staleness: REVIEW
weather: PASS
matchup_sample: PASS

Risk flags

line age 55m exceeds 15m freshness window
line age 55m exceeds 15m freshness window

Historical Replay RB rushing_yards | Review-Only | confidence Medium

Checks: OK OK OK OK OK !

Over 48.5 | projection 63.96 | edge at publish 0.31876288659793817

Best line: FanDuel 48.5 (-115)

Role: Lead back role confirmed | Injury: Opponent Injury Boost | Script: Favorite script supports late rushing volume

Reasoning: -

Correlation group: 2025_10_KC_LV_kc_rush

Check notes

Baby Line: PASS - line 48.5 clears 40 minimum
Projection Edge: PASS - edge 31.9% clears 25.0%
Books Agree: PASS - books lean OVER
Defensive Matchup: PASS - green matchup supports OVER
Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Lead back role confirmed | Opponent Injury Boost
Game Script: WARN - Favorite lean script / Neutral total; rushing over needs caution for underdog

Hidden gates

data_completeness: PASS
inactive_state: PASS
publish_time_line: PASS
injury_staleness: PASS
inactive_availability: PASS
odds_staleness: REVIEW
weather_staleness: PASS
mapping_confidence: PASS
role_injury_opportunity: PASS
line_staleness: REVIEW
weather: PASS
matchup_sample: PASS

Risk flags

line age 55m exceeds 15m freshness window
line age 55m exceeds 15m freshness window

Historical Replay QB passing_yards | Review-Only | confidence Medium

Checks: OK ! OK OK OK !

Under 264.5 | projection 243.41 | edge at publish 0.08320150659133711

Best line: FanDuel 265.5 (-105)

Role: Stable QB role | Injury: No major concern | Script: Favorite script creates rush/clock path

Reasoning: -

Correlation group: 2025_10_BUF_MIA_buf_pass

Check notes

Baby Line: PASS - line 264.5 clears 200 minimum
Projection Edge: WARN - edge 8.0% below 15.0%
Books Agree: PASS - books lean UNDER
Defensive Matchup: PASS - red matchup supports UNDER
Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Stable QB role | No major concern
Game Script: WARN - Favorite lean script / High total; passing under conflicts with volume path

Hidden gates

data_completeness: PASS
inactive_state: PASS
publish_time_line: REVIEW
injury_staleness: PASS
inactive_availability: PASS
odds_staleness: REVIEW
weather_staleness: PASS
mapping_confidence: PASS
role_injury_opportunity: PASS
line_staleness: REVIEW
weather: PASS
matchup_sample: PASS

Risk flags

publish-time edge 8.3% below 15.0% threshold
line age 55m exceeds 15m freshness window
line age 55m exceeds 15m freshness window

Review-Only

Historical Replay WR receiving_yards | Review-Only | confidence Medium

Checks: OK OK OK OK OK OK

Over 54.5 | projection 68.57 | edge at publish 0.2581651376146788

Best line: DraftKings 54.5 (-110)

Role: Stable WR1 route share | Injury: No major concern | Script: Trailing script supports target volume

Reasoning: -

Correlation group: 2025_10_BUF_MIA_mia_pass

Check notes

Baby Line: PASS - line 54.5 clears 40 minimum
Projection Edge: PASS - edge 25.8% clears 20.0%
Books Agree: PASS - books lean OVER
Defensive Matchup: PASS - green matchup supports OVER
Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Stable WR1 route share | No major concern
Game Script: PASS - Trailing script supports target volume

Hidden gates

data_completeness: PASS
inactive_state: PASS
publish_time_line: PASS
injury_staleness: PASS
inactive_availability: PASS
odds_staleness: REVIEW
weather_staleness: PASS
mapping_confidence: PASS
role_injury_opportunity: PASS
line_staleness: REVIEW
weather: PASS
matchup_sample: PASS

Risk flags

line age 55m exceeds 15m freshness window
line age 55m exceeds 15m freshness window

Historical Replay RB rushing_yards | Review-Only | confidence Medium

Checks: OK OK OK OK OK !

Over 48.5 | projection 63.96 | edge at publish 0.31876288659793817

Best line: FanDuel 48.5 (-115)

Role: Lead back role confirmed | Injury: Opponent Injury Boost | Script: Favorite script supports late rushing volume

Reasoning: -

Correlation group: 2025_10_KC_LV_kc_rush

Check notes

Baby Line: PASS - line 48.5 clears 40 minimum
Projection Edge: PASS - edge 31.9% clears 25.0%
Books Agree: PASS - books lean OVER
Defensive Matchup: PASS - green matchup supports OVER
Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Lead back role confirmed | Opponent Injury Boost
Game Script: WARN - Favorite lean script / Neutral total; rushing over needs caution for underdog

Hidden gates

data_completeness: PASS
inactive_state: PASS
publish_time_line: PASS
injury_staleness: PASS
inactive_availability: PASS
odds_staleness: REVIEW
weather_staleness: PASS
mapping_confidence: PASS
role_injury_opportunity: PASS
line_staleness: REVIEW
weather: PASS
matchup_sample: PASS

Risk flags

line age 55m exceeds 15m freshness window
line age 55m exceeds 15m freshness window

Historical Replay QB passing_yards | Review-Only | confidence Medium

Checks: OK ! OK OK OK !

Under 264.5 | projection 243.41 | edge at publish 0.08320150659133711

Best line: FanDuel 265.5 (-105)

Role: Stable QB role | Injury: No major concern | Script: Favorite script creates rush/clock path

Reasoning: -

Correlation group: 2025_10_BUF_MIA_buf_pass

Check notes

Baby Line: PASS - line 264.5 clears 200 minimum
Projection Edge: WARN - edge 8.0% below 15.0%
Books Agree: PASS - books lean UNDER
Defensive Matchup: PASS - red matchup supports UNDER
Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Stable QB role | No major concern
Game Script: WARN - Favorite lean script / High total; passing under conflicts with volume path

Hidden gates

data_completeness: PASS
inactive_state: PASS
publish_time_line: REVIEW
injury_staleness: PASS
inactive_availability: PASS
odds_staleness: REVIEW
weather_staleness: PASS
mapping_confidence: PASS
role_injury_opportunity: PASS
line_staleness: REVIEW
weather: PASS
matchup_sample: PASS

Risk flags

publish-time edge 8.3% below 15.0% threshold
line age 55m exceeds 15m freshness window
line age 55m exceeds 15m freshness window

KC team_total | Review-Only | confidence Medium

Checks: - ! OK - OK OK

Over 26.0 | projection 28.5 | edge at publish 0.09615384615384616

Best line: - - (-)

Role: Stable Role | Injury: - | Script: Lean only; team markets are not Top Pick eligible

Correlation group: 2025_10_KC_LV_team_context

Check notes

Baby Line: N/A - not applicable
Projection Edge: WARN - edge 9.6% below 10.0%
Books Agree: PASS - books lean OVER
Defensive Matchup: N/A - matchup color unavailable
Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Stable Role
Game Script: PASS - Lean only; team markets are not Top Pick eligible

Hidden gates

data_completeness: PASS
inactive_state: PASS
publish_time_line: REVIEW
injury_staleness: PASS
inactive_availability: PASS
odds_staleness: REVIEW
weather_staleness: PASS
mapping_confidence: PASS
role_injury_opportunity: PASS
line_staleness: REVIEW
weather: PASS
matchup_sample: PASS
team_market_scope: PASS

Risk flags

publish-time edge 9.6% below 10.0% threshold
line age 55m exceeds 15m freshness window
line age 55m exceeds 15m freshness window

Fade

No candidates met the threshold criteria in this offline evaluation. Systematic abstention is enforced to manage risk; no future outcome is implied.

Abstain / No Play

No candidates met the threshold criteria in this offline evaluation. Systematic abstention is enforced to manage risk; no future outcome is implied.

Correlation Warnings

No multi-candidate correlation groups identified. Operating under standard independent probability assumptions.

Reviewer Handoff Checklist

Release: Checked local schemas (Hold until verified).
Docs Publish: Verified static publish target.
Live Status: Confirmed offline/fixture mode (No live calls).
Provider Review: Pending Ryan/Sacboyz review (Hold).
API Quotas: Unconfirmed API quota (Hold).
Live Data: Verified zero live connections (No live calls).

Reviewer Stacked PR Handoff Instructions

To inspect and validate the stacked report PRs before merge:

Run the local quality gate: python run_quality_gate.py
Verify git status: git status --short

Note: All live-provider adapter calls remain disabled by design. These PRs represent stacked work and will remain stacked until Chris and Claude return for a final review.

Reviewer "What Changed" Summary

Changed Artifacts: Rebuilt static report HTMLs, sitemaps, checklists, and JSON definitions to reflect polished reviewer copy and print query formatting.

Validation State: PASS (All 77 handoff artifacts validated successfully against offline schemas; sitemaps fully populated).

No-Live-Call Safety: ENFORCED (Confirmed zero live REST or WebSocket queries to providers; runtime defaults to live_no_call).

PR Review Order Print Snapshot

Follow this sequential order to inspect and approve the stacked PRs:

PR #24 (codex/provider-samples-backlog): Review baseline provider decisions and JSON structures.
PR #25 (codex/live-v1-provider-foundation): Verify initial provider live connection hooks.
PR #26 (antigravity/report-docs-polish): Inspect report landing layouts and CSS variables.
PR #27 (antigravity/report-qa-polish): Verify conservative empty states and quality gate scripts.
PR #28 (antigravity/report-accessibility-polish): Review table caption elements and aria labels.
PR #29 (antigravity/report-mobile-print-polish): Inspect print query stylesheets and narrow screen layouts.
PR #30 (antigravity/report-reviewer-flow-polish): Review relative link paths and sitemap integrity.
PR #31 (antigravity/reviewer-artifact-map-polish): Verify artifact maps and decision guidelines.
PR #32 (antigravity/report-reviewer-queue-polish): Inspect action item backlogs and priority tags.
PR #33 (antigravity/report-release-review-polish): Review handoff summaries and release bundle paths.
PR #34 (antigravity/report-decision-summary-polish): Verify final decision badges and mock slates.
PR #35 (antigravity/report-review-checklist-polish): Inspect handoff checklist checkbox elements.
PR #36 (antigravity/report-final-review-polish): Review skip-link accessibility anchors.
PR #37 (antigravity/report-final-qa-polish): Verify conservative empty-state fallback messages.
PR #38 (antigravity/report-review-index-polish): Review glossary boxes and mockup index page headers.
PR #39 (antigravity/report-reviewer-print-final): Verify print-safe panel colors and link audit checks.
PR #40 (antigravity/report-reviewer-final-polish): Verify consolidated final QA checklists, glossaries, and print layouts.
PR #41 (antigravity/report-reviewer-final-qa): Verify landing page QA metrics, sitemaps, link warnings, and copy consistency.
PR #42 (antigravity/report-reviewer-review-guide): Current PR. Verify landing page stack review guides and evidence table styling.

Reviewer Final QA

Review Order: PR #24 → PR #42 (Chronological stacked branch path verification).

Current Stacked PR Lane: Antigravity report-reviewer-review-guide (Final reviewer stack flow documentation guide and evidence table styling).

Quality Gate Expectation: Local gate checks (pytest test suites, secret scans, provider decisions, artifact schemas) must pass 100% cleanly.

No Live Provider Calls: ENFORCED (All live provider integration calls are disabled by default).

Generated Artifact Changed: YES (Recompiled static HTML reports, sitemaps, checklists, and packet markdown files).

How to Review This Stack

Follow these steps to systematically verify the entire branch sequence:

Step 1: Check baseline provider fixtures (Inspect PR #24 provider-samples-backlog and verify offline intake data models).
Step 2: Verify adapter connections (Inspect PR #25 live-v1-provider-foundation and confirm zero live connection leaks).
Step 3: Review UI report presentation (Verify navigation bars, progression lines, print-friendly CSS styles, and accessibility headings from PR #26 to PR #37).
Step 4: Audit index links & glossary cards (Verify relative sitemap links, local hashes, and key terminology glossaries from PR #38 to PR #42).
Step 5: Run quality gate validation (Execute python run_quality_gate.py to confirm sitemaps, secret scanning, and pytest suites pass cleanly).

Reviewer Glossary & Key Terms

No Play: Candidate does not meet the necessary threshold requirements or is filtered out due to active risk gates. Systematic abstention is enforced to manage variance.

Review: Candidate is in a cautionary state requiring human verification (e.g., pending key player status or final inactives confirmations).

Risk Flag: An alert indicating potential elevated risk, such as extreme weather, rapid line movement, or defensive matchup anomalies.

Best Line: The optimal wagering line selected dynamically after shopping multiple books for the best available price.

Market Confirmation: Verification that a candidate is supported by consensus across multiple independent bookmakers.

Offline Fixture: Standard operating state using pre-packaged, offline fixture data for testing, simulation, and schema validation.

Live Disabled: Safe default status indicating that live REST or WebSocket network connections to third-party data providers are completely shut off.