Season 2026 Week 1 | generated 2026-09-06T10:00:00-04:00 | publish 2026-09-06T10:00:00-04:00
Education-first static prototype. Singles-first. No lock language. No live data.
Actionable / Lean Candidates
Example WR
receiving_yards | A | confidence High
Checks: OK OK OK OK OK OK
Over 50.5 | projection 63.0 | edge at publish 0.24752475247524752
Best line: DraftKings 50.5 (-110)
Role: Stable WR1 usage | Injury: No major concern | Script: Trailing script supports targets
Reasoning: -
Correlation group: 2026_01_DAL_PHI_dal_pass
Check notes
- Baby Line: PASS - line 50.5 clears 40 minimum
- Projection Edge: PASS - edge 24.8% clears 20.0%
- Books Agree: PASS - books lean OVER
- Defensive Matchup: PASS - green matchup supports OVER
- Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Stable WR1 usage | No major concern
- Game Script: PASS - Favorite lean script / High total; passing volume fits DAL
Hidden gates
- data_completeness: PASS
- inactive_state: PASS
- publish_time_line: PASS
- role_injury_opportunity: PASS
- line_staleness: PASS
- weather: PASS
- matchup_sample: PASS
Risk flags
Opportunity Boost RB
rushing_yards | A | confidence High
Checks: OK OK OK ! OK !
Over 48.5 | projection 68.0 | edge at publish 0.4020618556701031
Best line: DraftKings 48.5 (-115)
Role: Opportunity Boost | Injury: Starter ruled out; role confirmed in inactives | Script: KC favored; rushing script in second half
Reasoning: -
Correlation group: 2026_01_KC_LV_kc_rush
Check notes
- Baby Line: PASS - line 48.5 clears 40 minimum
- Projection Edge: PASS - edge 40.2% clears 25.0%
- Books Agree: PASS - books lean OVER
- Defensive Matchup: WARN - orange matchup is caution
- Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Opportunity Boost | Starter ruled out; role confirmed in inactives
- Game Script: WARN - Strong favorite script / Neutral total; rushing over needs caution for underdog
Hidden gates
- data_completeness: PASS
- inactive_state: PASS
- publish_time_line: PASS
- role_injury_opportunity: PASS
- line_staleness: PASS
- weather: PASS
- matchup_sample: PASS
Risk flags
B Grade WR
receiving_yards | B | confidence High
Checks: OK OK ! X OK OK
Over 52.5 | projection 67.0 | edge at publish 0.2761904761904762
Best line: DraftKings 52.5 (-110)
Role: Stable WR2 role; volume consistent | Injury: No concern | Script: Target-share ceiling supported by game script
Reasoning: -
Correlation group: 2026_01_KC_LV_kc_pass
Check notes
- Baby Line: PASS - line 52.5 clears 40 minimum
- Projection Edge: PASS - edge 27.6% clears 20.0%
- Books Agree: WARN - books have no clear lean or model side is unavailable
- Defensive Matchup: FAIL - red matchup fades OVER
- Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Stable WR2 role; volume consistent | No concern
- Game Script: PASS - Strong favorite script / Neutral total; passing volume fits KC
Hidden gates
- data_completeness: PASS
- inactive_state: PASS
- publish_time_line: PASS
- role_injury_opportunity: PASS
- line_staleness: PASS
- weather: PASS
- matchup_sample: PASS
Risk flags
Isolated Def Injury WR
receiving_yards | A | confidence High
Checks: OK OK ! OK OK OK
Over 58.5 | projection 72.0 | edge at publish 0.23076923076923078
Best line: FanDuel 58.5 (-110)
Role: Stable WR1 role | Injury: Opponent Injury Boost | Script: Dome game; weather neutral
Reasoning: -
Correlation group: 2026_01_KC_LV_kc_pass
Check notes
- Baby Line: PASS - line 58.5 clears 40 minimum
- Projection Edge: PASS - edge 23.1% clears 20.0%
- Books Agree: WARN - books have no clear lean or model side is unavailable
- Defensive Matchup: PASS - green matchup supports OVER
- Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Stable WR1 role | Opponent Injury Boost
- Game Script: PASS - Strong favorite script / Neutral total; passing volume fits KC
Hidden gates
- data_completeness: PASS
- inactive_state: PASS
- publish_time_line: PASS
- role_injury_opportunity: PASS
- line_staleness: PASS
- weather: PASS
- matchup_sample: PASS
Risk flags
Slot WR
receptions | A | confidence High
Checks: OK OK OK X OK OK
Over 4.5 | projection 5.7 | edge at publish 0.2666666666666667
Best line: FanDuel 4.5 (-115)
Role: Slot WR with consistent target share | Injury: No concern | Script: Target-share driven; game total supports volume
Reasoning: -
Correlation group: 2026_01_KC_LV_kc_pass
Check notes
- Baby Line: PASS - line 4.5 clears 3 minimum
- Projection Edge: PASS - edge 26.7% clears 22.5%
- Books Agree: PASS - books lean OVER
- Defensive Matchup: FAIL - red matchup fades OVER
- Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Slot WR with consistent target share | No concern
- Game Script: PASS - Strong favorite script / Neutral total; passing volume fits KC
Hidden gates
- data_completeness: PASS
- inactive_state: PASS
- publish_time_line: PASS
- role_injury_opportunity: PASS
- line_staleness: PASS
- weather: PASS
- matchup_sample: PASS
Risk flags
Flex RB
rush_receiving_yards | B | confidence High
Checks: - OK ! ! OK OK
Over 58.5 | projection 74.0 | edge at publish 0.26495726495726496
Best line: DraftKings 58.5 (-110)
Role: Pass-catching RB with high snap share | Injury: No concern | Script: PHI trailing script supports check-down volume
Reasoning: -
Correlation group: 2026_01_DAL_PHI_team_context
Check notes
- Baby Line: N/A - no baby-line threshold configured
- Projection Edge: PASS - edge 26.5% clears 20.0%
- Books Agree: WARN - books have no clear lean or model side is unavailable
- Defensive Matchup: WARN - orange matchup is caution
- Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Pass-catching RB with high snap share | No concern
- Game Script: PASS - Favorite lean script / High total; rushing volume fits favorite
Hidden gates
- data_completeness: PASS
- inactive_state: PASS
- publish_time_line: PASS
- role_injury_opportunity: PASS
- line_staleness: PASS
- weather: PASS
- matchup_sample: PASS
Risk flags
DAL
team_total | Lean | confidence High
Checks: - OK OK - OK OK
Over 22.5 | projection 26.0 | edge at publish 0.15555555555555556
Best line: DraftKings 22.5 (-110)
Role: Stable Role | Injury: - | Script: Lean only; team bets not Top Pick eligible
Reasoning: V1 team-market lean only; not Top Pick eligible. Projected side: OVER. Publish edge: 15.6%. Market confirmation: books lean OVER, which agrees. Game-script use: Lean only; team bets not Top Pick eligible.
Correlation group: 2026_01_DAL_PHI_team_context
Check notes
- Baby Line: N/A - not applicable
- Projection Edge: PASS - edge 15.6% clears 10.0%
- Books Agree: PASS - books lean OVER
- Defensive Matchup: N/A - matchup color unavailable
- Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Stable Role
- Game Script: PASS - Lean only; team bets not Top Pick eligible
Hidden gates
- data_completeness: PASS
- inactive_state: PASS
- publish_time_line: PASS
- role_injury_opportunity: PASS
- line_staleness: PASS
- weather: PASS
- matchup_sample: PASS
- team_market_scope: PASS
Risk flags
Review-Only
Next Man Up RB
rushing_yards | Review-Only | confidence Medium
Checks: OK OK X OK ! OK
Over 42.5 | projection 54.0 | edge at publish 0.27058823529411763
Best line: FanDuel 42.5 (-105)
Role: Role Upgrade, Review | Injury: Opponent Injury Boost | Script: Close game supports balanced volume
Reasoning: -
Correlation group: 2026_01_BUF_MIA_MIA_rush
Check notes
- Baby Line: PASS - line 42.5 clears 40 minimum
- Projection Edge: PASS - edge 27.1% clears 25.0%
- Books Agree: FAIL - books lean UNDER, model side OVER
- Defensive Matchup: PASS - green matchup supports OVER
- Role / Injury / Opportunity: WARN - Role Upgrade, Review
- Game Script: PASS - Close game supports balanced volume
Hidden gates
- data_completeness: PASS
- inactive_state: REVIEW
- publish_time_line: PASS
- role_injury_opportunity: REVIEW
- line_staleness: PASS
- weather: PASS
- matchup_sample: PASS
Risk flags
- pre-inactives confidence cap; no A grade can publish
- next-man-up role depends on inactives
Example QB
passing_yards | Review-Only | confidence Medium
Checks: OK ! ! OK OK !
Over 246.5 | projection 276.0 | edge at publish 0.027932960893854747
Best line: BetMGM 268.5 (-110)
Role: Stable QB role | Injury: Projection updated | Script: Line moved; edge compressed
Reasoning: -
Correlation group: 2026_01_DAL_PHI_dal_pass
Check notes
- Baby Line: PASS - line 246.5 clears 200 minimum
- Projection Edge: WARN - edge 12.0% below 15.0%
- Books Agree: WARN - books have no clear lean or model side is unavailable
- Defensive Matchup: PASS - green matchup supports OVER
- Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Stable QB role | Projection updated
- Game Script: WARN - Line moved; edge compressed
Hidden gates
- data_completeness: PASS
- inactive_state: PASS
- publish_time_line: REVIEW
- role_injury_opportunity: PASS
- line_staleness: PASS
- weather: PASS
- matchup_sample: PASS
Risk flags
- best line outlier vs market median (-2.0)
- publish-time edge 2.8% below 15.0% threshold
Thin Sample QB
passing_completions | Review-Only | confidence Low
Checks: OK OK ! ! OK !
Over 21.5 | projection 25.5 | edge at publish 0.18604651162790697
Best line: DraftKings 21.5 (-110)
Role: Cold-start sample caution | Injury: No major concern | Script: Low confidence projection
Reasoning: -
Correlation group: 2026_01_BAL_CIN_CIN_pass
Check notes
- Baby Line: PASS - line 21.5 clears 18 minimum
- Projection Edge: PASS - edge 18.6% clears 15.0%
- Books Agree: WARN - books have no clear lean or model side is unavailable
- Defensive Matchup: WARN - orange matchup is caution
- Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Cold-start sample caution | No major concern
- Game Script: WARN - Low confidence projection
Hidden gates
- data_completeness: PASS
- inactive_state: PASS
- publish_time_line: PASS
- role_injury_opportunity: PASS
- line_staleness: PASS
- weather: REVIEW
- matchup_sample: REVIEW
Risk flags
- High wind passing environment
- recent matchup sample below floor
Baseline Projection WR
receiving_yards | Review-Only | confidence Medium
Checks: OK ! ! ! OK OK
Over 62.5 | projection 60.65 | edge at publish 0.029600000000000022
Best line: DraftKings 62.5 (-110)
Role: Stable role | Injury: No boost | Script: Efficient market
Reasoning: -
Correlation group: 2026_01_BUF_MIA_BUF_pass
Check notes
- Baby Line: PASS - line 62.5 clears 40 minimum
- Projection Edge: WARN - edge 3.0% below 20.0%
- Books Agree: WARN - books have no clear lean or model side is unavailable
- Defensive Matchup: WARN - orange matchup is caution
- Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Stable role | No boost
- Game Script: PASS - Close game script / High total; passing under fits BUF
Hidden gates
- data_completeness: PASS
- inactive_state: PASS
- publish_time_line: REVIEW
- cold_start_projection: REVIEW
- role_injury_opportunity: PASS
- line_staleness: PASS
- weather: PASS
- matchup_sample: PASS
Risk flags
- publish-time edge 3.0% below 20.0% threshold
- cold-start baseline projection capped at Medium confidence
Contradiction QB
passing_yards | Review-Only | confidence Medium
Checks: OK ! X OK OK X
Under 250.5 | projection 220.0 | edge at publish 0.1217564870259481
Best line: - - (-)
Role: Stable QB role | Injury: No major concern | Script: Contradiction setup
Reasoning: -
Correlation group: 2026_01_BUF_MIA_buf_pass
Check notes
- Baby Line: PASS - line 250.5 clears 200 minimum
- Projection Edge: WARN - edge 12.2% below 15.0%
- Books Agree: FAIL - books lean OVER, model side UNDER
- Defensive Matchup: PASS - red matchup supports UNDER
- Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Stable QB role | No major concern
- Game Script: FAIL - Contradiction setup
Hidden gates
- data_completeness: PASS
- inactive_state: PASS
- publish_time_line: REVIEW
- role_injury_opportunity: PASS
- line_staleness: PASS
- weather: PASS
- matchup_sample: PASS
Risk flags
- publish-time edge 12.2% below 15.0% threshold
Goal Line RB
anytime_td | Review-Only | confidence Medium
Checks: - OK ! OK OK OK
Over 0.5 | projection 0.58 | edge at publish 0.15999999999999992
Best line: FanDuel 0.5 (120)
ATD: model probability 0.58 | book implied 0.45454545454545453 | value edge 0.12545454545454543 | ATD value exists but remains high variance
Role: Goal-line role | Injury: No major concern | Script: Team total and goal-line role support TD equity
Reasoning: -
Correlation group: -
Check notes
- Baby Line: N/A - not applicable
- Projection Edge: PASS - edge 16.0% clears 10.0%
- Books Agree: WARN - books have no clear lean or model side is unavailable
- Defensive Matchup: PASS - green matchup supports OVER
- Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Goal-line role | No major concern
- Game Script: PASS - Team total and goal-line role support TD equity
Hidden gates
- data_completeness: PASS
- inactive_state: PASS
- publish_time_line: PASS
- role_injury_opportunity: PASS
- line_staleness: PASS
- weather: PASS
- anytime_td: REVIEW
- matchup_sample: PASS
Risk flags
- ATD value exists but remains high variance
CIN QB
passing_tds | Review-Only | confidence Medium
Checks: - OK OK OK OK OK
Over 1.5 | projection 2.1 | edge at publish 0.4000000000000001
Best line: Caesars 1.5 (-115)
Role: Starting QB; high variance market | Injury: No concern | Script: BAL defense limits end-zone opportunities; high-variance
Reasoning: -
Correlation group: 2026_01_BAL_CIN_CIN_pass
Check notes
- Baby Line: N/A - no baby-line threshold configured
- Projection Edge: PASS - edge 40.0% clears 10.0%
- Books Agree: PASS - books lean OVER
- Defensive Matchup: PASS - green matchup supports OVER
- Role / Injury / Opportunity: PASS - Starting QB; high variance market | No concern
- Game Script: PASS - BAL defense limits end-zone opportunities; high-variance
Hidden gates
- data_completeness: PASS
- inactive_state: PASS
- publish_time_line: PASS
- role_injury_opportunity: PASS
- line_staleness: PASS
- weather: REVIEW
- matchup_sample: PASS
Risk flags
- High wind passing environment